In the recent TV 3 Poll John Key is ahead of Helen Clark in the preferred Prime Minister Poll.
This was the first time since 1999 that anyone had beaten Helen in the preferred Prime Minister rankings with the TNS Poll.
National were also up in the polls while Labour was down.
I felt that John Key's agreement with Clark and Bradford on the smacking bill did him favours, and I think this poll could be an indicator of that. Furthermore the Nats have come out saying that do not deny climate change and Key has dropped the opposition to the Kyoto Protocol, no doubt something will help win him even more votes.
With a leader that seems to be fairly centre right, has a good head on his shoulders, has a family and is likeable to many people I think he has the potential to lead the National Party to victory so long as he does not stuff up.
After watching Sunday last night and seeing many "middle-class" NZers complaining that they were the ones who voted Labour in and so the problems they are faced with are because they voted for the wrong party, their could possibly be a swing of voters to National, seeing as they appear to be increasingly centre. I also think people who have centre politics may be more attracted to National than Labour at the current point in time.
It is going to be fun to watch the polls and the build up to next years elections.
8 comments:
What we might see (I hope) is National doing a 180 in office and doing what they really should,tax cuts,a flat tax,massive slashing of red tape,knacker the RMA,ditch the waste of time and money Kyoto con and downsize the public disservice. It will be 84 and Douglas all over again but if that's what's needed to get NZ on the right track so be it but its a sad indictment of the economic ignorance of Kiwis...telling them the truth has them running for Nanny States bosom so deception has become a necessity it seems.
Who cares? Go Labour!!
Watching the middle class media report the middle class whinging going on in this country right now is about the most unedifying display of selfishness I think I've ever seen.
Hum... I guess I have to be consistent and keep saying polls are bullshit (though the pollsters took their post-election egg facial with an impressive lack of shame), and the whole 'preferred Prime Minister' question is just the dumb cherry on the stupid sundae.
Here's why: We do not directly elect the executive branch of our government. And if you ask ten poli sci geeks how strongly leadership affects party support, I suspect you'll get a hundred different answers all qualified up the wazoo.
OTOH, live by the polls, die by the polls and let the spin begin! I guess you take your comfort wherever you can get it, in the cold game of politics. :)
Good idea eh. Then Winnie and the Maori Party bale out of the coalition, leading to the first one year government in many years.
Labour/Greens get back in led by a dynamic new left-wing leader. Nationalises the right-wing media, sacks the closet Tories in NBNZ, puts marginal tax rates up to 110% with a 25% wealth tax. Half the Nats core vote runs screaming to Aussie, leaving NZ with permanent socialism!
Craig is 100% right on the "preferred PM" question being irrelevant.
I actually suspect that it might taint the polling - as with asking pollees about anything other than soft-drink preferences (a lucrative subsidy for loss-leading political polls).
Global warming is the most serious issue facing mankind since holes in the ozone layer, the y2k bug and killer bees.
Let's hope global warming will be like the Y2K bug then...
Post a Comment